Daves On Soccer

Hi folks. Sorry about the slow posting this week. It's been a brutal week in the office.

Actually, much of the delay is really due to my frustration at missing the Wednesday Champions League victory — Ajax 1-2 Arsenal. Wish I could have seen it, but no go in the US with the CL games; you get two a week on ESPN2, and that's it. One is guaranteed to be Man U, and so there you have it. Of course I was quite pleased to see the win, especially given that 1) it was an away win in the CL, and 2) we did it in a scrappy fashion, with a battered team. Good job, Gunners!

But here we are, with a weekend ahead of us. I thought this week to try something different, and rank the games... but only those that us American* viewers can watch, and only on Fox Soccer Channel... because I'm not the lucky stiff who's got GolTV. So here it is, the first...

Prioritized Weekend Soccer Planner

1. Sunday, 10AM CDT: Liverpool v. Chelsea. (PPV, $20). Now this is a match. It only loses a bit of lustre because it's a replay of the Wednesday Champions League match. But that was a 0-0 draw, the first points Chelsea have dropped on the season. Liverpool seem to have a clue on what to do with the Blues. Verdict: Match of the Week. Worth the $20... if you're in the mood for spendy soccer. Find a pub if you can.
   
   
2. Saturday, 2PM CDT: Charlton v. Tottenham. Yes, believe it or not: Ladies and gents, you're looking at the #2 and #4 teams in the Prem. Contrasting styles and a fight for position. Charlton are the more defensive team, but they're at home; they might as well settle for 10th if they don't go for goals. Verdict: Watch this.
   
   
3. Saturday, 11AM CDT: Sunderland v. West Ham. OK, two teams fighting relegation. Oh, hang on... West Ham are in fifth?!? Hard to imagine. Both teams are on the upswing, Sunderland from their win over Boro win last weekend, West Ham from the draw over Arsenal. I'm sure it won't be pretty, but it will be hard-fought. Might see the Hammers run rampant, but you never know. Verdict: Couldn't hurt.
   
   
4. Sunday, 12PM CDT: Arsenal v. Birmingham. Disclaimer: This is a must-watch for me, of course. But for the neutral? Well, at least you know Arsenal will do something interesting. Birmingham are rather meh at the moment. At least you should see some action. Verdict: Couldn't hurt.
   
   
5. Saturday, 4PM CDT: Portsmouth v. Newcastle. Somehow I blinked, and Newcastle climbed to 10th. Shows what a couple wins can do. Portsmouth are hovering in 16th. Michael Owen has proved the talisman for Newcastle so far. The real question is, will Newcastle continue the revival, or will Pompey ruin the fun? Verdict: Couldn't hurt.
   
   
6. Sunday, 8AM CDT: Lecce v. Cagliari. I was excited when FSW started carrying Serie A matches. Then I realized they were all like this, with 19th place against 16th. Somehow I don't think this is the introduction to the beauty of Italian football that I want. Verdict: Couldn't hurt, but only because I want to visit the Italian game.
   
   
7. Saturday, 9AM CDT: Frankfurt v. Schalke. I'll admit, I don't follow the Bundesliga too closely. And this game doesn't look too exciting. Frankfurt are squarely in the relegation zone, while Schalke are up in fifth. But then again, it's at a great breakfast time. Verdict: Couldn't hurt.
   
   
8. Saturday, 9AM EDT: Fulham v. Man Utd (PPV, $20). Oooh, how I would love to see United taken down a peg by my Americans. Hard to see it happening though, after a wrenching loss to Blackburn. PPV Verdict: Not worth $20. Heck, not worth $5. Someone should explain to the Powers That Be that ManU is not the be-all in the states any more.
   

I skipped a few other matches — MLS, USL, and U-17 Championship stuff. Could well be some good games in there, but the European club soccer is most interesting to me, for tonight, anyway. Enjoy the weekend, and pull for those (plucky!) Gunners!

*I think Fox Sports Canada carries the same games we get. I could check, but instead I'll just assume it.

I have little to say about the draw.

What can I tell you? Despite a few good attacks, Arsenal didn't look particularly dangerous. West Ham had a few chances too, but they were clearly happy to take a point from the match. And why not? Their goal for the season is to solidify their spot in the prem, and they're doing a fine job of it. If they can take a point from a match against Arsenal, they'll do so gladly.

Still, the match was billed as the antidote for the scoring drought in the Prem. Ironically, it was the only 0-0 game of the weekend, so it completely defeated the pundits' storyline. I'm glad for that if nothing else. There is certainly a defensive mindset at the moment in the league, but I think the "problem" is more hype than reality. Certainly Arsenal were going for goals, and West Ham weren't sitting back until the last half hour or so. Arsenal probably suffered from a short week (having played on Monday) as well as a look ahead to Champion's League play on Tuesday.

As I was watching the game, I came to believe that Arsenal's scoring problems come from a lack of stability more than anything. Arsenal have played 8 matches this season, and I think they haven't used the same starting 11 in any of those matches. (OK, the Thun and Everton matches were almost the same, save for Alumnia vs. Lehmann.) Midfielders in particular have been moved into various positions, and seen their roles change repeatedly. Some of that has been inevitable — fitting Hleb into the lineup, for example — and much has been due to injury. But in the end I think the team suffers. The good news, if I'm right, is that these things will stabilze over time, as the players grow more confident in their roles.

Anyway, we can hope. Player ratings:

Lehmann: 6. Did all right in the end, but had a few worrisome moments along the way.
Cole: 7. Defended well and got involved in the attack, though perhaps a touch less than usual.
Toure: 6. Not a bad game, and had one trademark Toure run.
Campbell: 7. Won an amazing number of balls in the air.
Lauren: 7. A fine job.
Hleb: 6. Lots of fine work, to little result. Hasn't seemed to gel yet in the side, though he's certainly working at it. Lineup instability probably doesn't help.
Gilberto: 6. His usual quietly involved self. Seemed to slow with injuries, hopefully not a recurrence of the back problem.
Fabregas: 6. A bit off his usual game. Seemed out of sync.
Ljungberg: 7. Looked quite threatening but couldn't make it tell.
van Persie: 5. Had some chances, but seemed to miscommunicate most of the afternoon.
Reyes: 7. Everything but a goal. He seems to be doing everything right, save scoring.

Subs:
Flamini: 6 (71' for Gilberto). As always, had the effort, but couldn't seem to get involved enough.
Owusu-Abeyie: 8 (73' for Reyes). Active and creative, Quincy brought a renewed threat to the Gunners.
Clichy: 5 (82' for van Persie). An odd substitution. Didn't have enough time to really shine.

A much-needed win for the Gunners.

I was able to avoid the score all afternoon, so when I got home I made some dinner, parked in front of the TV, and watched the game as if it were live. The two early goals were well-earned, and with a 2-0 lead (and Everton not much of a threat) I was able to relax just a bit. Everton had a few chances in the first half, but never really threatened in the second. The main entertainment was to watch Arsenal try to find another goal, which they went after fruitlessly but with vigor.

Sol Campbell's two goals were quite well taken, and owed much to two sweet free-kicks by Jose Antonio Reyes. As much as I've enjoyed seeing Phillipe Senderos play, it's heartening to see Sol back in the lineup. His presence was missed. His two goals were an appropriate welcome back to the pitch. I'm sure he will be only more motivated, having a taste of the bench, and with an England spot to nail down.

I'm not entirely happy with the match. I worry that Arsenal weren't able to get a goal from open play. They did look more dangerous than their last few games, but still it just wasn't as incisive as we're used to. Robin van Persie might have done better on the fine ball from Reyes, and Freddie Ljungberg was rather unlucky to find the crossbar after Nigel Martyn spilled a free kick. So it wasn't all bad. But still, this was the kind of match that Arsenal should have won, oh I dunno, maybe 7-0.

What the heck. Player ratings:
Jens Lehmann: 7. He is looking calm and solid. Didn't have too much to do, but dealt with everything easily. If he keeps this up, he'll be seeing action next August.
Ashley Cole: 6. Played well enough. Got into the attack more often as the game wore on.
Kolo Toure: 6. Came close to a goal of his own. Generally solid, with one poor pass to Sol that nearly gave up a goal.
Sol Campbell: 9. Welcome back, big guy.
Bisan Lauren: 6. Also played well enough. He seems more active this year.
Robert Pires: 5. Worked hard, but had to depart early due to Phil Neville being a dick.
Gilberto Silva: 6. Did his usual thing: quiet but involved.
Francesc Fabregas: 5. Seemed not to have his touch today, gave the ball up more than usual. Still a fiend though.
Freddie Ljungberg: 7. Worked like crazy, as always, but didn't seem to have his best touch. Unlucky to miss the goal.
Robin van Persie: 6. He's learning on the job, but doing a pretty good job of it. Still disappears too long during games however. Seems to have a knack for having a quiet game, then suddenly exploding.
Jose Antonio Reyes: 8. Well-earned assists for the two goals, and nearly a third on van Persie's miss. Involved and active throughout. And did well to take the yellow card for fouling Phil, the prick. Cheers, Jose.

Subs:
Aleksander Hleb: 7 (29' for Pires). Very useful in the midfield, I think he's naturally more of a central player in the English game.
Dennis Bergkamp: 6 (67' for van Persie). Didn't quite get into the flow of the game, though he was on the verge quite a few times.
Alexandre Song: 5 (86' for Reyes). Didn't have much time to shine. Nearly gifted Everton a goal, but otherwise fine.

So of course: Arsenal 2-1 Thun in the first game of the Champions League group stage. And if you were waiting for me to tell you that... well then, I'd love to hear why you read this blog, because I'm not sure what you're here for.

(And I meant that seriously, actually. Do we get US readers who are interested but casual or new to soccer? That would be good to know.)

I haven't commented on the match, because I haven't seen the game. In the US, Champions League games are carried by the ESPN stations (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic, ESPN Deportes). They just don't care about soccer, and it shows. They show two matches on Tuesday and Wednesday. But two of those are shown on ESPN Deportes (spanish-language ESPN), so they tend to show Spanish teams: this week, it was Lyon vs. Real Madrid and Werder Bremen vs. Barcelona. (The commentary is in Spanish, but at least I can see the game.) The other two games, on ESPN2, were Real Betis vs. Liverpool and Villareal vs. Man Utd.

So, two games a day, on two of their smaller channels. I think ESPN expects me to be grateful. Right. But why not put another game on ESPN? Oh, that's right, they have important things to show. Let's see... Tuesday, that was "2005 And 1 Mix Tape Tour presented by Mountain Dew". Wednesday, it was imperative to show "NFL Films: Lost Treasures Volume XV". I wouldn't doubt that this kind of garbage actually draws more viewers in the US than real sports. But if that's all that ESPN cares about, then they shouldn't buy the rights to the games! They could try to build understanding and appreciation for the sport; instead, they ghettoize it and show garbage like this instead. ESPN is rapidly becoming as relevant to sports as MTV is to music. Which is to say: not at all.

And don't get me started on Soccernet, which is also an ESPN property. In short: very good soccer coverage, but they know nothing about the IT side of the world. Here's a subtle hint: your redesign is utter crap.

Anyway. The Thun game was much tighter than it should be. Arsenal have developed a surprising unwillingness to score this year. Often you see Arsenal holding loads of posession just outside the penalty area, without working a clear chance or taking any shots. It's usually described as "waiting for the perfect goal," which I think sums it up well. They seem unwilling to take a chance, instead expecting their ball movement to open gaping holes in the defense. But teams are now defending the Gunners by packing the box, putting enough players behind the ball that sheer numbers make it difficult to open a path to the goal.

Arsenal haven't adjusted to this yet. At the moment they're too predictable; they need to change things up a bit. Take some 30-yard shots... and make sure someone is lurking in case the keeper spills the ball. (Mr. Pires, call your office.) It's not going to work often, but it will work sometimes, and it will force the defense to push out farther.

The one event I need to see is Robin van Persie's foul. He drew a red card for a high foot that caught Alen Orman in the shoulder and face. The consensus seems to be that it was a reckless challenge, but that there was no malice in it. Arsenal fans (and the English press, to a lesser degree) have derided the call, arguing that a yellow would have been appropriate.

Since I haven't seen the foul, I can't comment specifically. But my gut is that RVP has little to complain about. As I wrote back in August, it seems that FIFA have asked referees to hold to the letter of the law regarding dangerous challenges. The law states: "A tackle, which endangers the safety of an opponent, must be sanctioned as serious foul play." Which means a straight red. This is an explicit FIFA decision on interpreting Law 12. And I think it's correct, too. Players who get out of control can be a serious threat, even if their intentions aren't malicious. There's still room for interpretation on what "endangers the safety of an opponent," so I can't say whether I agree with the specific call. But seven stiches in the face certainly makes it sound like a dangerous challenge, at least when delivered by a boot at eye level.

Next up: Everton at Highbury on Monday. Of course, that sucks for the US fan, since the game will happen while I'm at the office. I will attempt to remain ignorant of the result for a few hours, until I get home and can watch it on Tivo. So — shh!

You have to like the directness of the CONMEBOL (South American) qualifying process. Ten teams to sort through? Well then, put them in a big group, have them play home-and-home with each other, spend two years on games, and see who comes out on top. Eighteen games for every team; by that point, you'd better have a good sense of who's best. The good news is that they are almost done, with every team having played 16 of their 18 games.

Of the ten teams, four qualify automatically. The fifth-place team then has a playoff with the Oceania winner, Australia. This is a testament to the value FIFA places on South American soccer — either 40% or 50% of the teams from the region will go to Germany.

Where do they stand, with two games left? To absolutely nobody's surprise, both Argentina and Brazil have already qualified. Brazil is of course the most successful World Cup team of all time, and it's difficult to imagine a cup without them. This will be their 18th time; they are the only nation to qualify for every World Cup, and they've won it five times. Argentina is only slightly less storied, and have lifted the cup twice themselves.

What about the other teams? Right now, Ecuador and Paraguay are the two teams rounding out the top four, with Uruguay clinging to the fifth spot. These five teams also qualified for the 2002 World Cup, so if the current standings hold, we'll have a bit of South American deja vu.

Ecuador and Paraguay are looking fairly safe, on 26 and 25 points respectively. While it's too early for them to book tickets to Germany, I think they can start surfing Priceline. Uruguay is on 21 points, barely above Colombia and Chile at 20 points, so that fifth-place spot is still very much up in the air. Venezuela are technically still alive, on 18 points, but would need a miracle to qualify (particularly in their 12 October match in Brazil). Key matches on 8 October are Ecuador vs. Uruguay and Colombia vs. Chile. The 12 October matches between Paraguay vs. Colombia and Chile vs. Ecuador will also be crucial.

One region left to cover: Africa. Look for that report soon!

There were some interesting Champions League games today, but I want to avoid commenting yet. After all, these are just the first games of the group stage; there's a lot of soccer left to play.

So let me turn back to World Cup qualifying. All the regions are down to two games or less, followed by a few inter-region playoffs. I've given updates previously on the status in CONCACAF (North American and the Carribbean) and Europe. Let me turn to a couple of the less-known regions: Asia and Oceania.

Asia

This region is virtually done. There are eight teams in two groups. The top two teams from each group qualify, while the third-place teams have a playoff with each other. The winner of that playoff then has to play against the fourth-place CONCACAF nation.

The group stage is done. The four teams to qualify are Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and South Korea. These aren't too big a surprise, especially Japan and South Korea, after their fine performances as joint home teams in 2002. Saudi Arabia was also in that tournament, while Iran is replacing China, who lost in the previous group stage. They faced Kuwait in their group, and lost by the thinnest of margins. Both teams were equal on points and goal differential; they each won 1-0 against the other at home. Kuwait went through because they scored 15 goals overall, opposed to 14 for China. A cruel disappointment for China, but their poor performance in 2002 will leave few neutrals disappointed in the change: they had an aggregate score of 0-9 in their 3 matches.

So that's four through. The last two teams competing for a spot are Uzbekistan and Bahrain. They played their first match last week, but as I've blogged before, the game will be replayed. (Update: Japanese referee Toshimitsu Yoshida has been suspended indefinitely. No surprise there.)

So they'll do it again. Given the quality of the teams, my guess is that the fourth-place CONCACAF team will ultimately go through, but we'll see how things play out.

Oceania

Poor Oceania — the region nobody loves. They get no qualifiers of their own; the best Oceania team still must face a playoff against the fifth-place team from South America. How demaning is that?

At any rate, we know who gets that (dis)honor: Australia. They defeated the Solomon Islands with a brutal 9-1 aggregate score, including a 7-0 win at home. So now they must wait for the final South American qualifying games, to find out who they will face.

So that's the scoop. Compared to Europe, the picture is completely settled, with four teams qualified, one ready for an inter-region playoff, and two teams still battling for the right to another playoff. Next we'll look at South America. Maybe we can tell who Australia will face.

Ick.

Obviously I've been avoiding commenting on the game. Of course I'm disappointed, but more than that I'm just not sure what to say about it. Arsenal had loads of posession, worked some good chances, but were unlucky to miss their reward. Meanwhile, Boro saw little of the ball, but made two goals from nothing.

The first goal came late in the first half. Yakubu took the ball high in the area, with his back to the goal and Kolo Toure firmly in position. Yakubu feinted Toure, right-left, and worked just enough space to turn and shoot. It was a fine goal.

The second goal was just atrocious. Pascal Cygan just blew it. He belatedly decided to step up to play Massimo Maccarone offside... after the pass had been sent in. Maccarone was one-on-one with Lehmann, and made a good shot to put Boro ahead, 2-0. The play was exacerbated by the previous Arsenal attempt, as they had a legitimate penalty claim, were denied, and probably spent too much effort arguing the call.

Reyes' goal was a case of too little, too late, but he had the lion's share of Arsenal's chances so it's difficult to blame him. Neither Dennis Bergkamp nor Robin Van Persie were terribly useful. Alexsander Hleb was as energetic and involved as ever but couldn't manufacture any clear chances, while Robert Pires was almost nonexistent.

So, a very disappointing afternoon for the Gunners. And now that Henry is out for four weeks, they face a true test of confidence. Fortunately, they start their Champions League season on Wednesday against minnows FC Thun. Perhaps a good result will get them back on track. One thing is certain: they won't suffer from overconfidence.

I've always wondered what goes on behind the scenes when new, foreign players are brought into the MLS. Surely, it wasn't as sophmoric when Lothar Matthaus and Roberto Donadoni were brought to MLS. I'd absolutely love to discover some tell-all first-hand account of a European player's experience in MLS. Surely there must be something out there.

With the international week over, we now know a lot more about who's going to Germany. Most teams have two games left. But still, there are quite a few uncertainties left. Let's start by looking at Europe.

European qualifying is slow to resolve, due to the setup. There are eight groups, and only the winners of each group automatically advance. In the end, five of the eight second-place teams will go through, but still there's more unccertainty than in most regions. Only two teams have qualified outright, and one of those is Germany, with an automatic bid.

Qualified

• Germany (automatic)
  
• Ukraine+
  
  Nearly There Both these teams only need one point from the remaining two games.
  
• Portugal**
  
• Italy**
  
  The four teams above are nearly certain to qualify. Ten more will qualify from the remaining teams.
  
  In The Hunt:
  
• Netherlands**
  
• Sweden**
  
• Croatia**
  
• Switzerland**
  
• France**
  
• Poland**+
  
• England**
  
• Serbia & Montenegro**
  
• Czech Republic*
  
• Greece*
  
• Slovakia*
  
• Norway*
  
• Spain*
  
• Russia*
  
• Bosnia-Herzegovina*
  
• Ireland*
  
• Turkey+
  
• Slovenia
  
• Belgium
  
  Outside Shot
  
• Romania+
  
• Denmark
  
• Latvia+
  
• Israel+
  
• Scotland
  
• Lithuania

* Control their own destiny. Team can at least reach second place by winning its own games (and of course could win a playoff through its own efforts.
** Control their own destiny for reaching first place in group. Team can reach first place by winning its own games.
+ Team only has one game left (instead of two)

The two best-placed second place teams qualify automatically. As things stand today, that would be the Czech Republic and either Turkey or Croatia. (I don't know how they break ties.)

Rather than post a detailed analysis of the game, I decided to describe the experience of attending overall. And that began with a 180-mile drive. I tried to find friends to ride with, but that just didn't work, so I was on my own. (Next time, I'll buy tickets the instant they're for sale.) Actually Landry was gracious enough to allow me to use his ussoccer.com password for the presale, and that got me the key ticket. The drive was fine, until we got downtown in Columbus, where there was a crush of cars trying to get into the game. What US Soccer lacks in sheer numbers of fans, it more than makes up in their fanaticism.





The tailgating looked like a lot of fun, but I was a half-hour late due to the traffic, so I had to hustle into the stadium. The place was about 3/4 packed when I got in, and it was filling rapidly. I was in the corner, just a couple sections from Sam's Army and right next to an aisle filled with loud, happy Mexican fans.

The sun was setting as the players warmed up. It was a beautiful late-summer night, cloudless and warm. The stadium was buzzing with anticipation and chants (both US and Mexican). A moment of silence was called for the victims of Katrina, and the crowd slowly settled into a respectful quiet. Next came the national anthems, which were poorly done by a marching band (U of Dayton, I believe). I'm sure they played OK, but they were huddled together in the far end and we couldn't hear anything. Not a problem — the fans did the singing themselves. The whistle blew and we got things going.

I have no photos of the game itself; I couldn't tear myself away. The first half was gripping and tense — and the players showed it. Both sides were afraid of mistakes. Mexico had more of the posession, but didn't make any clear chances. That is, until the end of the half, when Ramon Morales took a powerful free kick that Kasey Keller did well to save. Halftime was tense and jittery; everyone could sense that the game could go either way.

The second half began just as tensely. Then came the foul and a US free kick. Eddie Lewis floated it in from 35 yards, and Oguichi Onyewu got a head to it, despite being crunched from both sides. It came back hard, off the post, but Steve Ralston was there to easily head it into the goal. Mexico had been sleeping and paid dearly. It was a scrappy goal that combined a great kick by Lewis, fine work under pressure by Gooch, and a heads-up play by Ralston. The US crowd — including me! — erupted with joy. It's one of my greatest moments all-time in sport.

As my screams wound down, I glanced to my right and saw the deflated Mexican fans. They looked beat. Maybe they knew that their team wasn't in a scoring mood. At any rate, they looked stunned. And their pessimism proved correct as the second goal came minutes later. DaMarcus Beasley found Claudio Reyna after a short corner, and Reyna's return ball found Beasley making a great diagonal run into the box. Mexican keeper Oswaldo Sanchez came out, but too late; Beasley rifled his shot over Sanchez's legs and into the goal.

And that was it. Mexico tried to make something happen, but never looked to pull back even one goal. As the clock wound on, more and more fans took up the chants of "Germany! Germany!" At 88 minutes, even I couldn't resist and joined in. The balance of noise shifted entirely to the US fans, and when the final whistle came, we erupted once more. And so did the players. They quickly found flags to wrap around themselves, and basked in the joy. Landon Donovan walked around screaming. Kasey Keller just grinned ear to ear. Frankie Hedjuk ripped off his shirt and wandered around in a daze, screaming and pumping his fists.

They began to head to the locker room, but Keller grabbed the players and pointed to the stands, and they did their well-deserved lap of victory. They took their time, personally thanking the US fans section by section, ending (of course) with Sam's Army. The Army was going nuts, shouting and dancing. Finally the players headed in to the locker room, for their well-earned champagne showers.

I don't know how many of the fans will make it to Germany. I do know that it's painful to imagine not being there. After seeing the excitement and love the US fans can bring to the team, and how well it's returned, I'd love to be there. Maybe I can work it out. But for now, I'm content to know that I was able to support my country in a great atmosphere and see us get qualified for the World Cup.

Guatemala 0-0 US: Disappointing for both teams I'm sure. The US fielded a whole new 11... and it showed. Not much coherence, in the attack especially. But the defense played quite well. Guatemala should have been more of a threat, with their backs to the wall and at home. But that 1 point might prove vital to their hopes.

Mexico 5-0 Panama: Mexico qualifies, and good for them. I've given them some stick recently, but really they do deserve to be in the World Cup, and I think they'll represent CONCACAF well. Panama just look overmatched.

Costa Rica 2-0 Trinidad & Tobago: Costa Rica are on the verge of qualifying. Clearly they have been the #3 team in the region, and they deserve to go to Germany. T&T are a good side, and I would like to see them qualify. But they are now a point behind Guatemala.

So that's the story. Guatemala have a slim one-point lead over Trinidad & Tobago in the chase for fourth place and the playoff with either Uzbekistan or Bahrain. They both face Mexico, but Guatemala have them in Mexico. In the other game, T&T are away to Panama, while Guatemala are home to Costa Rica. Advantage T&T... but maybe Costa Rica will be qualified before the 12 October game. It's darn close. With a 1-point lead I have to give Guatemala the edge... but it wouldn't shock me at all to see Trinidad & Tobago make the comeback. And with Guatemala's listless performace last night, I think it'd be the right thing.

CONCACAF Qualifying		Away
		Mexico	Guatemala	Costa Rica	United States	Panama	Trinidad & Tobago
H o m e	Mexico		8 Oct 2005	2-0 17 Aug 2005	2-1 27 Mar 2005	5-0 7 Sep 2005	2-0 8 Jun 2005
	Guatemala	0-2 4 Jun 2005		12 Oct 2005	0-0 7 Sep 2005	2-1 17 Aug 2005	5-1 26 Mar 2005
	Costa Rica	1-2 9 Feb 2005	3-2 8 Jun 2005		8 Oct 2005	2-1 26 Mar 2005	2-0 7 Sep 2005
	United States	2-0 3 Sep 2005	2-0 30 Mar 2005	3-0 4 Jun 2005		12 Oct 2005	1-0 17 Aug 2005
	Panama	1-1 30 Mar 2005	0-0 9 Feb 2005	1-3 3 Sep 2005	0-3 8 Jun 2005		8 Oct 2005
	Trinidad & Tobago	12 Oct 2005	3-2 3 Sep 2005	0-0 30 Mar 2005	1-2 9 Feb 2005	2-0 4 Jun 2005

The quick plug: I enjoy reading Eric McErlain's Off Wing Opinion. He's now doing a (roughly) weekly podcast with Rob Visconti, called Bleacher Guy Radio. (Grab the RSS feed here.)

They've now tried out a feature called "Jackass Of The Week". And I have the perfect candidate for next week: Mexico coach Ricardo La Volpe. After his team was humiliated lost to the US on Saturday, he emitted the following quote:

It’s a little team. Here, everyone’s interested in baseball and American football and many people didn’t even know that a soccer match was being played today. So it’s easy for them, because they aren’t playing under any pressure. My mother, my grandmother or my great grandmother could play in a team like that. They scored a goal and then they sat back.

Um, right. You can make all kinds of excuses, Ricardo. The fact is, though, your team couldn't produce anything, and looked lost in Columbus. What's the matter... feeling the heat?

So Eric and Rob, I have your candidate for you. Ricardo La Volpe, come on down!

This is just odd. Uzbekistan and Bahrain are engaged in a home-and-home playoff for World Cup qualifying; the winner will face the fourth-place CONCACAF team. Uzbekistan won the first leg, 1-0. But bizarrely, the match will be replayed. Even more bizarrely, it was because Uzbekistan complained.

The problem was a clear technical error by the ref. He awarded Uzbekistan the penalty at 39 minutes. When it was taken, a second Uzbek player encroached into the penalty area. The correct call is to retake the kick. But instead, Japanese referee Toshimitsu Yoshida gave Bahrain an indirect free kick at the spot of the infringement.

That's bad. It's clearly an incorrect ruling. As a result, FIFA have decided that the match must be replayed. This is strange because it means that Uzbekistan had played well enough to win 1-0, and probably should have won 2-0 with the penalty. Now they have to go at it again, and may easily get a worse result. I'm sure that's not what the Uzbekistan Football Federation had in mind when they protested.

It's not a good thing when you second-guess a ref after the game. I'm sure FIFA felt they had no choice, given that the ref clearly misapplied the rules. But I can't help but believe that there was a better situation. The best approach would be to restart the game with the penalty, and play from there. Second best would be to just let the result stand. Uzbekistan were asking for a 3-0 forfeit win; that's clearly too harsh on Bahrain (who didn't do anything wrong). But FIFA have effectively wiped away Mirdjalal Kasimov's 12' goal, and that's clearly not deserved. When in doubt, you have to let the call stand.

I do wonder, however, what will happen to Yoshida. It's not often that you can take a match between the 50th and 53rd ranked programs, and turn it into a major international story. Now he's brought attention to the quality of Japanese refereeing in general. I'm guessing he'll soon find himself assigned to under-5 matches and prison leagues.

I still owe all our loyal readers a summary of the game in Columbus. But I want to pull a few photos out of the digital camera for that, so it'll take a day or two. (Landry can attest to my slow process with photos.)

But for now, screw that. Let's look to see what's coming up in CONCACAF. Every team has three matches left. The US has qualified for Germany, and Mexico needs just one point from their last three games. Panama isn't out yet, but with two points from seven games, things look grim. I'd say there's a 98% chance that Mexico qualify, and maybe a 5% chance that Panama can make it.

So there are really three teams left fighting for qualification. Costa Rica currently holds third with 10 points, giving them the last automatic qualification spot. Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago are both on 7 points, with Guatemala taking 4th spot (and the playoff against an Asian team) based on head-to-head record.

Who's looking best? Costa Rica has the points lead, so that's an automatic advantage. But Guatemala plays the US and Mexico, and might benefit from playing less powerful lineups as the US is already qualified and Mexico is close. Everything will hinge on the Wednesday game between Costa Rica and Trinidad & Tobago (in Costa Rica), and the 12 October match between Guatemala and Costa Rica (in Guatemala). I would bet that everyone will finish in their current positions... but there's still plenty of room for a motivated team to control their destiny.

CONCACAF Qualifying		Away
		Mexico	Guatemala	Costa Rica	United States	Panama	Trinidad & Tobago
H o m e	Mexico		8 Oct 2005	2-0 17 Aug 2005	2-1 27 Mar 2005	7 Sep 2005	2-0 8 Jun 2005
	Guatemala	0-2 4 Jun 2005		12 Oct 2005	7 Sep 2005	2-1 17 Aug 2005	5-1 26 Mar 2005
	Costa Rica	1-2 9 Feb 2005	3-2 8 Jun 2005		8 Oct 2005	2-1 26 Mar 2005	7 Sep 2005
	United States	2-0 3 Sep 2005	2-0 30 Mar 2005	3-0 4 Jun 2005		12 Oct 2005	1-0 17 Aug 2005
	Panama	1-1 30 Mar 2005	0-0 9 Feb 2005	1-3 3 Sep 2005	0-3 8 Jun 2005		8 Oct 2005
	Trinidad & Tobago	12 Oct 2005	3-2 3 Sep 2005	0-0 30 Mar 2005	1-2 9 Feb 2005	2-0 4 Jun 2005

The U.S. and Mexican players are donating their signed jerseys from Saturday's WC qualifier. Their jerseys, and many others from MLS players, will be auctioned off to support relief efforts for Hurricane Katrina.

I drove 180 miles, all by my lonesome. I got stuck in traffic for a half-hour, within two miles of the stadium. I had to park a half-mile from the gate. The restroom line took 15 minutes. In the stands, my seat was poor, at field level, on the corner, so I couldn't see much. On one side I had a crowd of loud, chanting Mexican fans; on the other, an older couple who really just wanted to sit and watch the game without disruption, and who tried to get the ushers to make everyone sit down.

After the game, it took me forever to find the car, and then 45 minutes to leave the parking lot. Then I had to drive the 180 miles back (again by myself), fighting sleep and a killer headache. I spent probably $60 in gas for the round trip, plus $10 for parking, not to mention the $54 for the ticket. All that for an hour and a half of entertainment.

I'm in heaven.

2-0 to the US. We are going to Germany.

More later. For now, I'm going to sleep, grinning all night long.

This will be a huge game for World Cup qualifying in North America.

How to describe this rivalry? There's really no analogy. CONCACAF is an odd region, given that it encompasses really just a few major soccer powers. And while you might get your odd good year from another team -- Costa Rica, or the Dominican Republic, or Jamaica -- in the end, it always comes down to two: US and Mexico. Mexico have historically been the dominant team, but over the past 10 years, the US has evened the balance of power. The same is true this year, as the US and Mexico are top of the group stage, with only one point currently keeping Mexico in first.

Both teams have won five out of six played. Mexico played to a draw in Panama, and of course the US lost to Mexico 2-1 in Mexico City. So there's not much between the two teams. Today's game will prove crucial in who tops the group.

Will that matter? After all, both teams are sure to qualify. One of these two teams may end up seeded for the World Cup group draw, and that will definitely matter. More than that, though, it's all about the bragging rights between the two countries. The US has had the upper hand for several years now, but Mexico have been playing well and would love to reestablish their dominance. A victory in the US would put forward a powerful claim.

Mexico have played well recently. Their #1 threat right now is Jared Borgetti. His aerial attack has been the undoing of Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, and of course the US. But the US has had a good run too, behind Landon Donavan, Brian McBride, and the stellar goalkeeping of Kasey Keller. They will miss Bobby Convey (sent off against T&T) but will have Claudio Reyna back in form.

No matter what, it will be a huge game. I'm glad I'm able to go. I'll post photos and commentary when I return. But for now... I'm predicting 2-1 to the US. Go Nats!