Daves On Soccer06 September 2005
CONCACAF Qualifying Situation
I still owe all our loyal readers a summary of the game in Columbus. But I want to pull a few photos out of the digital camera for that, so it'll take a day or two. (Landry can attest to my slow process with photos.)
But for now, screw that. Let's look to see what's coming up in CONCACAF. Every team has three matches left. The US has qualified for Germany, and Mexico needs just one point from their last three games. Panama isn't out yet, but with two points from seven games, things look grim. I'd say there's a 98% chance that Mexico qualify, and maybe a 5% chance that Panama can make it.
So there are really three teams left fighting for qualification. Costa Rica currently holds third with 10 points, giving them the last automatic qualification spot. Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago are both on 7 points, with Guatemala taking 4th spot (and the playoff against an Asian team) based on head-to-head record.
Who's looking best? Costa Rica has the points lead, so that's an automatic advantage. But Guatemala plays the US and Mexico, and might benefit from playing less powerful lineups as the US is already qualified and Mexico is close. Everything will hinge on the Wednesday game between Costa Rica and Trinidad & Tobago (in Costa Rica), and the 12 October match between Guatemala and Costa Rica (in Guatemala). I would bet that everyone will finish in their current positions... but there's still plenty of room for a motivated team to control their destiny.
But for now, screw that. Let's look to see what's coming up in CONCACAF. Every team has three matches left. The US has qualified for Germany, and Mexico needs just one point from their last three games. Panama isn't out yet, but with two points from seven games, things look grim. I'd say there's a 98% chance that Mexico qualify, and maybe a 5% chance that Panama can make it.
So there are really three teams left fighting for qualification. Costa Rica currently holds third with 10 points, giving them the last automatic qualification spot. Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago are both on 7 points, with Guatemala taking 4th spot (and the playoff against an Asian team) based on head-to-head record.
Who's looking best? Costa Rica has the points lead, so that's an automatic advantage. But Guatemala plays the US and Mexico, and might benefit from playing less powerful lineups as the US is already qualified and Mexico is close. Everything will hinge on the Wednesday game between Costa Rica and Trinidad & Tobago (in Costa Rica), and the 12 October match between Guatemala and Costa Rica (in Guatemala). I would bet that everyone will finish in their current positions... but there's still plenty of room for a motivated team to control their destiny.
| CONCACAF Qualifying | Away | ||||||
| Mexico | Guatemala | Costa Rica | United States | Panama | Trinidad & Tobago | ||
| H o m e | Mexico | 8 Oct 2005 | 2-0 17 Aug 2005 | 2-1 27 Mar 2005 | 7 Sep 2005 | 2-0 8 Jun 2005 | |
| Guatemala | 0-2 4 Jun 2005 | 12 Oct 2005 | 7 Sep 2005 | 2-1 17 Aug 2005 | 5-1 26 Mar 2005 | ||
| Costa Rica | 1-2 9 Feb 2005 | 3-2 8 Jun 2005 | 8 Oct 2005 | 2-1 26 Mar 2005 | 7 Sep 2005 | ||
| United States | 2-0 3 Sep 2005 | 2-0 30 Mar 2005 | 3-0 4 Jun 2005 | 12 Oct 2005 | 1-0 17 Aug 2005 | ||
| Panama | 1-1 30 Mar 2005 | 0-0 9 Feb 2005 | 1-3 3 Sep 2005 | 0-3 8 Jun 2005 | 8 Oct 2005 | ||
| Trinidad & Tobago | 12 Oct 2005 | 3-2 3 Sep 2005 | 0-0 30 Mar 2005 | 1-2 9 Feb 2005 | 2-0 4 Jun 2005 | ||
// posted by Dave Ciskowski @ 10:25 
